Sunday, May 30, 2004
Technology Trends...
In 2001 IBM was granted 3,411 patents in the United States, more than any other company for the ninth year in a row. IBM’s patent portfolio- more than 37, 000 in force worldwide - generated $1.5 billion in licensing royalties in 2001.
In 1991 the US Patent and Tradesmark Office issued 106,482 patents. In 2001 they issued 185,057 patents. (Source Patent Office)
The expense of filing a patent can easily cost $250,000 to file, prosecute and maintain patents in 20 countries through the life of the patent. This does not include the millions more in identifying potential infriengers, building a case and litigating. (Dan McCrudy - President of Lucent)
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The console of a circa 1975 maintframe computer (IBM System/370 model 159) could execute one million instructions per second and support hundreds of users, but it required a large computer room with raised floor and water cooling, and it cost well over $1 million.
In constrast, the PC period introduced the idea of one computer per user, and today’s high-end PC can execute instructional nearly 1,000 times faster than the 197 mainframe. (“Twenty Technology Trends that Affect Home Networking) 2004
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Solid State Memory (flash memory) is on a marathon race. The capacity of Compact Flash cards now exceed 2 Gig - compared to 32K - 4 years ago. Within 2-3 years, a postage stamp-sized memory card will be able to hold a feature length movie. (edited) (“Twenty Technology Trends that Affect Home Networking) 2004
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Tracking People? The VOBOS project has initated a combo mobile phone with GP and sends the coordinates to a server. And the movement of the “kit” is traced on a very detailed city/street level map. (Phil Zimmermann: http://news.com.com/2100-1099-998728.html)
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COMMON-SENSE COMPUTING (AP/CNN.com 9 Jun 2002) http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/ptech/06/09/common.sense.computer.ap/index.html
Computer scientists have been working with linguists, theologians, mathematicians and philosophers since 1984 in a project they hope will transform human existence -- teaching a computer common sense. The group has spent the last 18 years building the Cyc database, feeding it 1.4 million truths and generalities about daily life that they hope eventuall
y will give computers supercharged reasoning abilities -- which could enable humans to work more efficiently, understand one another better, and even help predict the previously unforeseeable. This spring, Cyc's developer -- Cycorp Inc. -- created a Web link to enable the public to download Cyc's knowledge base and teach it a few things, too. Cycorp founder and president Doug Lenat says that if enough people log in to share their wisdom, Cyc could quickly become vastly more useful -- doing duty as an instant language translator, annotating e-mails to put them in better context for their recipients, or even offering humans advice from varying points of view. Inventor Ray Kurzweil thinks Lenat is taking the right approach toward educating Cyc, combining pattern recognition with a rule-based foundation. "We're not going to spoon-feed all of our knowledge one rule at a time. I do think we could take Cyc as the seed for a self-organizing system that would then learn on its own."
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- Bell Labs Says It Shatters Data Delivery Record 2002
Bell Labs, the research arm of Lucent Technologies Inc. said on Friday that it has doubled the distance and the speed at which data can be sent over long-haul telecommunications networks.
The development will eventually make it cheaper for telecommunications service providers to send more data on fiber optic networks over longer distances. Bell Labs said that, in a demonstration, it sent a massive 2.56 terabits of data per second over a distance of 2,500 miles, the equivalent of sending the contents of 2,560,000 novels every second across the United States. One terabit is a little over 1 trillion bits of data. The previous record was 1.6 terabits per second over 1,250 miles, or half the distance. Bell Labs achieved the 2.56 terabit-per-second speed by sending 40 gigabits-per-second of data over each of 64 separate channels in fiber optic cable, which uses light waves to carry data. It used dense wave division multiplexing, a technology that allows service providers to push bigger chunks of data onto a single strand of optical fiber. The capacity and distance improvement was made possible by use of a coding scheme called differential phase shift keying, which Bell Labs has developed for high-capacity communications. Lucent's current long distance networking product, the LambdaExtreme, cannot support the higher data speeds but a spokesperson said the Murray Hill, New Jersey based networking company will incorporate the improvements into future products.
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Linux as an emerging standard.
About 73% of attendees identified Linux or “some other” operating system as the dominant emerging standard operating system in the consumer electronics segment, while 19% of participants identified Windows XP as the emerging dominant operating system in the consumer segment. In 2004, companies will continue to shift from costly Unix servers to clusters of low-cost Linux servers – a trend that has been emerging for several years. In 2001, Amazon.com cut its quarterly technology expenses by 25% by moving its systems to Linux (as well as benefiting from price reductions for its data and telecommunication services). Today, a cluster of more than 10,000 Linux servers handles Google’s more than 200 million searches per day. Of 360 large European enterprises recently surveyed by Gartner, more than half either used or planned to use Linux for their Web servers.
http://www.itnetcentral.com/computerworld/article.asp?id=12885&info=Computerworld&leveli=0
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Decline of the web browser: Google sounded the bell that signaled the gradual decline of the web browser by recently launching the Google Deskbar. The Deskbar enabled direct web search without needing to use a web browser such as Internet Explorer.
http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml
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Internet users spent an average of three hours and 37 minutes per month using Internet applications.
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VoIP: Voice-over-Internet Protocol voice data communications services will explode in 2004. The baby bells see the path ahead and it is not analog switched phone calls. Internet based phone calls are here to stay and is a reality that all telephone service providers must provide or they will die. Look for some big VoIP service announcements early in 2004. Consumers will win as VoIP will enable lower cost long distance calling and better integrate the services provided by present telephone companies as they become data companies in 2004.
http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml
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An estimated 750+ MILLION INTERNET USERS WORLDWIDE use the Internet an estimated average of 30-45 minutes per day in 2003-04. In 1998 there were only 150 Million internet users.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
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In 3 years eBay became a 100+ year old business.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
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MileStone for 2002 Global (Technology/Media/Telecom)
- There are more internet users than PCs world wide
- There are more mobile phones than fixed telephones worldwide
- There are more Internet users in Asia/Pacific (Including Japan) than in North America
- Global residential broadband subscriptions are now over 88million subscibers (03)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
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Impact of Internet / Technology is just starting
- Commerce Shiftes
- Search / Find / Obtain efficiency
- Media Replacement
- Consumer Empowerment
- China Ramp as a Global Economic Player
- Outsourcing
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
---------–
In 2001 IBM was granted 3,411 patents in the United States, more than any other company for the ninth year in a row. IBM’s patent portfolio- more than 37, 000 in force worldwide - generated $1.5 billion in licensing royalties in 2001.
In 1991 the US Patent and Tradesmark Office issued 106,482 patents. In 2001 they issued 185,057 patents. (Source Patent Office)
The expense of filing a patent can easily cost $250,000 to file, prosecute and maintain patents in 20 countries through the life of the patent. This does not include the millions more in identifying potential infriengers, building a case and litigating. (Dan McCrudy - President of Lucent)
-------------—
The console of a circa 1975 maintframe computer (IBM System/370 model 159) could execute one million instructions per second and support hundreds of users, but it required a large computer room with raised floor and water cooling, and it cost well over $1 million.
In constrast, the PC period introduced the idea of one computer per user, and today’s high-end PC can execute instructional nearly 1,000 times faster than the 197 mainframe. (“Twenty Technology Trends that Affect Home Networking) 2004
--------------
Solid State Memory (flash memory) is on a marathon race. The capacity of Compact Flash cards now exceed 2 Gig - compared to 32K - 4 years ago. Within 2-3 years, a postage stamp-sized memory card will be able to hold a feature length movie. (edited) (“Twenty Technology Trends that Affect Home Networking) 2004
-------------
Tracking People? The VOBOS project has initated a combo mobile phone with GP and sends the coordinates to a server. And the movement of the “kit” is traced on a very detailed city/street level map. (Phil Zimmermann: http://news.com.com/2100-1099-998728.html)
---------–
COMMON-SENSE COMPUTING (AP/CNN.com 9 Jun 2002) http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/ptech/06/09/common.sense.computer.ap/index.html
Computer scientists have been working with linguists, theologians, mathematicians and philosophers since 1984 in a project they hope will transform human existence -- teaching a computer common sense. The group has spent the last 18 years building the Cyc database, feeding it 1.4 million truths and generalities about daily life that they hope eventuall
y will give computers supercharged reasoning abilities -- which could enable humans to work more efficiently, understand one another better, and even help predict the previously unforeseeable. This spring, Cyc's developer -- Cycorp Inc. -- created a Web link to enable the public to download Cyc's knowledge base and teach it a few things, too. Cycorp founder and president Doug Lenat says that if enough people log in to share their wisdom, Cyc could quickly become vastly more useful -- doing duty as an instant language translator, annotating e-mails to put them in better context for their recipients, or even offering humans advice from varying points of view. Inventor Ray Kurzweil thinks Lenat is taking the right approach toward educating Cyc, combining pattern recognition with a rule-based foundation. "We're not going to spoon-feed all of our knowledge one rule at a time. I do think we could take Cyc as the seed for a self-organizing system that would then learn on its own."
-----------
- Bell Labs Says It Shatters Data Delivery Record 2002
Bell Labs, the research arm of Lucent Technologies Inc. said on Friday that it has doubled the distance and the speed at which data can be sent over long-haul telecommunications networks.
The development will eventually make it cheaper for telecommunications service providers to send more data on fiber optic networks over longer distances. Bell Labs said that, in a demonstration, it sent a massive 2.56 terabits of data per second over a distance of 2,500 miles, the equivalent of sending the contents of 2,560,000 novels every second across the United States. One terabit is a little over 1 trillion bits of data. The previous record was 1.6 terabits per second over 1,250 miles, or half the distance. Bell Labs achieved the 2.56 terabit-per-second speed by sending 40 gigabits-per-second of data over each of 64 separate channels in fiber optic cable, which uses light waves to carry data. It used dense wave division multiplexing, a technology that allows service providers to push bigger chunks of data onto a single strand of optical fiber. The capacity and distance improvement was made possible by use of a coding scheme called differential phase shift keying, which Bell Labs has developed for high-capacity communications. Lucent's current long distance networking product, the LambdaExtreme, cannot support the higher data speeds but a spokesperson said the Murray Hill, New Jersey based networking company will incorporate the improvements into future products.
----------–
Linux as an emerging standard.
About 73% of attendees identified Linux or “some other” operating system as the dominant emerging standard operating system in the consumer electronics segment, while 19% of participants identified Windows XP as the emerging dominant operating system in the consumer segment. In 2004, companies will continue to shift from costly Unix servers to clusters of low-cost Linux servers – a trend that has been emerging for several years. In 2001, Amazon.com cut its quarterly technology expenses by 25% by moving its systems to Linux (as well as benefiting from price reductions for its data and telecommunication services). Today, a cluster of more than 10,000 Linux servers handles Google’s more than 200 million searches per day. Of 360 large European enterprises recently surveyed by Gartner, more than half either used or planned to use Linux for their Web servers.
http://www.itnetcentral.com/computerworld/article.asp?id=12885&info=Computerworld&leveli=0
---------—
Decline of the web browser: Google sounded the bell that signaled the gradual decline of the web browser by recently launching the Google Deskbar. The Deskbar enabled direct web search without needing to use a web browser such as Internet Explorer.
http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml
-------
Internet users spent an average of three hours and 37 minutes per month using Internet applications.
-------—
VoIP: Voice-over-Internet Protocol voice data communications services will explode in 2004. The baby bells see the path ahead and it is not analog switched phone calls. Internet based phone calls are here to stay and is a reality that all telephone service providers must provide or they will die. Look for some big VoIP service announcements early in 2004. Consumers will win as VoIP will enable lower cost long distance calling and better integrate the services provided by present telephone companies as they become data companies in 2004.
http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml
-------—
An estimated 750+ MILLION INTERNET USERS WORLDWIDE use the Internet an estimated average of 30-45 minutes per day in 2003-04. In 1998 there were only 150 Million internet users.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
-------—
In 3 years eBay became a 100+ year old business.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
--------
MileStone for 2002 Global (Technology/Media/Telecom)
- There are more internet users than PCs world wide
- There are more mobile phones than fixed telephones worldwide
- There are more Internet users in Asia/Pacific (Including Japan) than in North America
- Global residential broadband subscriptions are now over 88million subscibers (03)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
--------------
Impact of Internet / Technology is just starting
- Commerce Shiftes
- Search / Find / Obtain efficiency
- Media Replacement
- Consumer Empowerment
- China Ramp as a Global Economic Player
- Outsourcing
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Feb. 2003
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